Observations on the GLVAR MLS stats
I’ve been doing some homework for my interview on FOX5 Vegas in the morning and I’ve come up with some very interesting Stats that I don’t think are getting much attention in our market.
1. If you use the total amount of homes closed last month, July 2007, this equates into a 16 month supply when you look at the current inventory levels are for the Las Vegas area MLS.
2. In the past few years, the Summer months Vegas had a spike in the total closing, this Summer is different, we have seen a steady decline. To me this means all of the would be buyers are on the sidelines waiting for the bottom.
3. The number of homes that were leased in the Southern Nevada MLS increased by 30% comparing the months of July ‘06 & July ‘07. In addition the median rental price increased by $50 to $1250/mth.
4. We are hearing lots of talk about the decrease in the Median price of a Las Vegas area house to below $300,000, this is still just about about a 10-12% decrease in the past two years but the total number of closing is down around 60% while our population has continued to grow.
Take these as you will, but from my vantage point the buyers are spooked and are lying in wait to see what happens. All the while they are spending their money on rentals making their landlord rich. I also believe that the longer the buyers wait the harder it is going to be for them to get a loan to buy that new house. This will force them to the rentals and we will see the number of available Vegas rentals decrease, unless the owners of the vacant homes that are for sale decide to start renting(that is a topic for another day), and we will see the Vegas rental rates increase even more.
A very wise man once told me, “You can’t pay too much for a home, you just pay too much too soon.” Don’t wait for the stats and the media to inform you of the bottom, by the time they do it will be old news and you will have missed it.
If you are considering buying property in Vegas anytime in the next 12 months, then it is time to start shopping and getting your ducks in a row, so when the time is right for you, you are ready!